CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-08T01:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33243/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered near N14W20 which deflects NW as it erupts based on SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The eruption begins around 2024-09-08T00:00Z. A faint EUV wave is visible traveling N/NE of the source location despite the filament material deflecting NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 304. Characterized by two consecutive enhancements in magnetic field components, the first at 2024-09-11T14:18Z and the second at 2024-09-11T15:40Z with Enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 343 km/s to approx. 390 km/s), temperature (approx. 26kK to approx. 70 kK), and density (approx. 4 p/cc to approx. 24 p/cc). These enhancements are possibly due to the arrival of CME: 2024-09-08T01:36Z, which arrived at STEREO A at 2024-09-10T21:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T14:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-10T20:17Z (-4.97h, +8.01h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/09/08 01:20Z Plane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 15:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction POS Difference: 6:00 POS Midpoint: 12:20Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00 Numeric View/Impact Type: 3 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.09 Travel Time: ~6.09 * 11:00 = 66:57 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-10T20:17Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/09/08 15:17ZLead Time: 68.60 hour(s)
Difference: 18.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-09-08T17:42Z
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